Dialsmith

Dialsmith is the technology partner and provider of the dial testing services for a closely followed, monthly Swing Voter Insights study being conducted by Engagious and Focus Pointe Global. These swing voter focus groups, which started this past March, are held every month up through Election 2020 in key swing voter districts across the Midwest and Florida. So, every month, we’ll be sharing our Top 5 Dial Testing Takeways from the latest focus group.

The latest group was held in Edina, Minnesota, and was made up of 11 participants—seven who voted for President Obama in 2012 and then President Trump in 2016, and four who voted for Mitt Romney in 2012 and then Hillary Clinton in 2016. They were asked a series of scale-based, discreet choice and moment-to-moment questions using our Perception Analyzer dials. The dial results revealed some results in common with our prior groups but there were some surprises as well. Here are our top takeaways from the Minnesota swing voter dial results:

Takeaway #1 | Getting serious on guns

In the wake of the recent mass shootings, we asked this group of swing voters to tell us, using their dials, how much they agreed or disagreed with the following idea to deal with gun violence (on a zero to 10 scale from “totally disagree” to“totally agree”): The best way to prevent mass shootings is to train more Americans on how to handle a gun, and to allow them to legally carry a gun with them in their day to day lives.

Both groups of swing voters, especially Romney-Clinton voters, disagreed with this idea (1.8/10, on average). This group of swing voters also unanimously favored federal background checks and banning assault weapons.

Takeaway #2 | Warren and Harris break through

The democratic presidential candidates, on the whole, have had a hard time gaining ground with the swing voters in our groups. Proposals such as Healthcare for All and the Green New Deal have not, at least not as of yet, been embraced by the swing voters we’ve talked with. But, in this Minnesota group, a couple of clips from the Democratic debate that the group viewed, got some positive traction with these swing voters. The two candidates who struck positive chords with the Minnesota swing voters were Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris, evidenced by the dial testing results in the clips below.

Meanwhile, Minnesota swing voters seem more familiar with the democratic candidates than the voters in our previous groups. In particular, Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar saw a significant, but not surprising, bump given her home field advantage with this group. But many of the candidates saw more modest gains.

Takeaway #3 | Trump’s support swings on the economy

We asked swing voters how their view of President Trump would be affected if an economic recession were to occur before the next election. For the president, it would spell very bad news. Using the dials, the group voted on a scale from zero (“My support for him will erode substantially”) to 10 (“My support for him will grow substantially”). Obama-Trump voters rated this at 3.0/10, and Romney-Clinton voters scored this at 0.3/10 (that’s a 0.3 folks).

Similarly, we were interested in finding out how their view of President Trump would be affected if a “trade war” with China were to cause prices to raise noticeably for them and their families. Using the same scale, Obama-Trump voters scored this at 3.3/10, and Romney-Clinton voters scored this at 1.0/10. When asked why their support for the President would erode, they answered because price increases would be burdensome to them and their families, and they don’t want to give up what they’re used to having.

Swing voters also have a very different view about where the U.S. economy is headed. We asked them to dial on a scale from zero to 10 how likely it is that the U.S. economy will enter a recession sometime in the next year (from “No chance it will enter a recession” to “It’s already in recession”). Obama-Trump voters scored this at 3.6/10, and Romney-Clinton voters rated this at 7.3/10, suggesting the latter have a very negative view of where the U.S. economy is headed.

Takeaway #4 | Trump’s healthcare record is not a picture of health

We also asked swing voters to use the dials to tell us how satisfied they are with President Trump’s efforts to ensure healthcare is affordable for them and their families, using on a scale from zero (“Not at all satisfied”) to 10 (“Very satisfied”). Both groups scored this low, with Obama-Trump voters scoring this at 3.6/10, and Romney-Clinton voters rating this at 2.5/10.

Takeaway #5 | No consensus on direction

We asked the group of swing voters how they felt about the direction our country is heading and the direction they thought Minnesota is heading. They responded by dialing on a scale of zero (“totally wrong direction”) to 10 (“totally right direction”). There was a clear distinction between the two sub-groups about how they viewed this question. Obama-Trump voters believed our country (4.9/10) and Minnesota (4.6/10) are moving slightly in the wrong direction, on average. However, Romney-Clinton voters saw it differently. They believed our country is moving in the wrong direction (2.3/10), while Minnesota is moving in the right direction (7.5/10).

If you’d like to download the full report from the Edina, Minnesota swing voter group and/or view video highlights, visit the Swing Voter Insights page. You can also view the full series of dial testing results from the second democratic debates on this YouTube channel.

If you’d like to chat with our team about how can help you find out what voters are thinking about anything from campaign speeches and ads to public policy messaging, please let us know. And please stay tuned for our top dial testing takeaways from next month’s Swing Voter Insights group as we make a return trip to the location of our first swing voter group—Appleton, Wisconsin.